Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Puszcza Niepołomice take on Lech Poznan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lech Poznan travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Puszcza Niepołomice stand at 0W 7D 3L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Puszcza Niepołomice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lech Poznan — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Lech Poznan's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lech Poznan are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Puszcza Niepołomice, 1 for Lech Poznan and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Puszcza Niepołomice 1–4 Lech Poznan — a Lech Poznan win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Puszcza Niepołomice in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 67% versus Lech Poznan 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 44% | Lech Poznan 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Puszcza Niepołomice surrender their half-time lead 75% of the time, while Lech Poznan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Lech Poznan surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Puszcza Niepołomice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 xG and Lech Poznan 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.902 / defence 1.170 | Lech Poznan attack 0.839 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.078. Data: built from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 27 games and Lech Poznan's last 61.
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 34% | Draw 35% | Lech Poznan 31%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.91 | Draw 2.90 | Lech Poznan 3.21. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Puszcza Niepołomice 80% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 34% | Draw 35% | Lech Poznan 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 / Lech Poznan 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.902 / def 1.170 | Lech Poznan attack 0.839 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Lech Poznan xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan?
Puszcza Niepołomice 2 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 34% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Puszcza Niepołomice's attack rating (0.90) and Lech Poznan's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 27 games and Lech Poznan's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
35%
2.90
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.18
1.06
Lech Poznan xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.06 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Puszcza Niepołomice's recent record stands at 5W 11D 11L from 27 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five.
Lech Poznan, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 5L across 27 games — 1.78 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lech Poznan by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Puszcza Niepołomice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Puszcza Niepołomice have managed 4W 7D 2L from their last 13 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lech Poznan's away record stands at 4W 6D 3L across their last 13 away games, a 1.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lech Poznan's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.44 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 5W 11D 11L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 13W 9D 5L in their last 27 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Lech Poznan away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.46 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Puszcza Niepołomice or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Puszcza Niepołomice have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 May 2025, when Lech Poznan won Lech Poznan 8-1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Puszcza Niepołomice's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Puszcza Niepołomice
0
Draws
2
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Lech Poznan?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2, Lech Poznan have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2025: Lech Poznan 8-1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 80% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 77%, Lech Poznan 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 46% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 38%; Lech Poznan in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Puszcza Niepołomice and Lech Poznan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 46% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Puszcza Niepołomice and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 46% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 69% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Puszcza Niepołomice edge out Lech Poznan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Lech Poznan 2-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 xG and Lech Poznan 1.06 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against Lech Poznan attack 0.84 / defence 0.87, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 34% | Draw 35% | Lech Poznan 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Puszcza Niepołomice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 44%, Lech Poznan 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Puszcza Niepołomice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.