Ruch Chorzów 0-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Warta Poznań at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ruch Chorzów host Warta Poznań at Stadion Śląski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruch Chorzów stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ruch Chorzów, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruch Chorzów's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Śląski this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Warta Poznań have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Warta Poznań — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ruch Chorzów, 0 for Warta Poznań and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ruch Chorzów trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Warta Poznań trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruch Chorzów 55% versus Warta Poznań 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruch Chorzów 50% | Warta Poznań 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruch Chorzów 1.15 xG and Warta Poznań 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.742 / defence 1.199 | Warta Poznań attack 1.011 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.247. Ruch Chorzów's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Ruch Chorzów games / 54 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 29% | Draw 26% | Warta Poznań 45%. Fair-value odds: Ruch Chorzów 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Warta Poznań 2.22. Warta Poznań hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Warta Poznań are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ruch Chorzów 50% | Warta Poznań 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Śląski • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruch Chorzów 29% | Draw 26% | Warta Poznań 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Ruch Chorzów 1.15 / Warta Poznań 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Ruch Chorzów attack 0.742 / def 1.199 | Warta Poznań attack 1.011 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Ruch Chorzów xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Warta Poznań xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadion Śląski.
What was the final score in Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań?
Ruch Chorzów 0 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Śląski.
What competition is Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań part of?
Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Ruch Chorzów a 29% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ruch Chorzów and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruch Chorzów and Warta Poznań?
Record (1 meetings): Ruch Chorzów 0W | Draws 1 | Warta Poznań 0W.
What form are Ruch Chorzów and Warta Poznań in?
Ruch Chorzów (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Warta Poznań (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ruch Chorzów's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Ruch Chorzów's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
29%
3.51
26%
3.84
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Ruch Chorzów xG
Total xG
2.66
1.51
Warta Poznań xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
6%
15.91
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ruch Chorzów and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Ruch Chorzów and 1.51 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruch Chorzów's recent record stands at 1W 10D 9L from 20 games, a 0.65 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ruch Chorzów is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 8L across 20 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Warta Poznań by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruch Chorzów heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ruch Chorzów have managed 1W 5D 4L from 10 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Warta Poznań's away record stands at 3W 4D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Warta Poznań come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruch Chorzów are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.10 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruch Chorzów
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruch Chorzów and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 10D 9L in their last 20 games (0.65 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruch Chorzów at home or Warta Poznań away?
Warta Poznań's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruch Chorzów at home: 0.80 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ruch Chorzów
2
Draws
0
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruch Chorzów and Warta Poznań?
From 2 meetings on record, Ruch Chorzów have won 0, Warta Poznań have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruch Chorzów and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Ruch Chorzów 0-0 Warta Poznań.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruch Chorzów 50%, Warta Poznań 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ruch Chorzów) and 50% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Ruch Chorzów have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruch Chorzów home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruch Chorzów play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ruch Chorzów's recent matches and 50% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ruch Chorzów's recent games and 50% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruch Chorzów and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Ruch Chorzów have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ruch Chorzów's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruch Chorzów and Warta Poznań finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Śląski, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruch Chorzów 1.15 xG and Warta Poznań 1.51 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ruch Chorzów fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Warta Poznań landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruch Chorzów attack 0.74 / defence 1.20 against Warta Poznań attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruch Chorzów 29% | Draw 26% | Warta Poznań 45%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruch Chorzów 50%, Warta Poznań 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Warta Poznań arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.