Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gornik Zabrze (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gornik Zabrze face Korona Kielce.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce meet at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Monday 19 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Gornik Zabrze (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Gornik Zabrze have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Korona Kielce have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Gornik Zabrze. A 0.80 PPG lead over Korona Kielce (2.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 0 for Korona Kielce and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 51% versus Korona Kielce 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 45% | Korona Kielce 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.19 xG and Korona Kielce 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.991 / defence 0.767 | Korona Kielce attack 0.787 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.248. Gornik Zabrze's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Gornik Zabrze games / 53 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 45% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 22%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Korona Kielce 4.55. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 30% | Korona Kielce 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Monday 19 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 45% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.19 / Korona Kielce 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.991 / def 0.767 | Korona Kielce attack 0.787 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Korona Kielce xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 February 2024 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce?
Gornik Zabrze 3 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 45% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce?
Record (3 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 2W | Draws 1 | Korona Kielce 0W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.79x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
45%
2.22
33%
3.02
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
1.95
0.75
Korona Kielce xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.75 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 21W 14D 18L from 53 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Korona Kielce, meanwhile, have gone 15W 17D 21L across 53 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.17 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 11W 7D 7L from 25 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Korona Kielce's away record stands at 3W 10D 12L across 25 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Korona Kielce's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.13 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 21W 14D 18L in their last 53 games (1.45 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 15W 17D 21L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Korona Kielce away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.60 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
0
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, Korona Kielce have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 1-0 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 44%, Korona Kielce 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gornik Zabrze) and 48% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Korona Kielce in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 64% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 48% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Korona Kielce 3-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.19 xG and Korona Kielce 0.75 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.99 / defence 0.77 against Korona Kielce attack 0.79 / defence 0.85, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 45% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 22%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 45%, Korona Kielce 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.45 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.