Jagiellonia 3-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Jagiellonia versus Warta Poznań in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jagiellonia have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Jagiellonia have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Warta Poznań (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Warta Poznań's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Jagiellonia's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Jagiellonia 2W, Warta Poznań 1W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 72% versus Warta Poznań 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 63% | Warta Poznań 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.00 xG and Warta Poznań 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.398 / defence 1.072 | Warta Poznań attack 0.756 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.113. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Jagiellonia games / 67 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 61% | Draw 24% | Warta Poznań 15%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Warta Poznań 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jagiellonia 60% | Warta Poznań 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 61% | Draw 24% | Warta Poznań 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Jagiellonia 2.00 / Warta Poznań 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.398 / def 1.072 | Warta Poznań attack 0.756 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Warta Poznań xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań?
Jagiellonia 3 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań part of?
Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 61% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań?
Record (5 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 2 | Warta Poznań 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Warta Poznań (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.40) and Warta Poznań's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (0.76x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.16
15%
6.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.90
0.90
Warta Poznań xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
6.86
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
2%
50.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.90 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 26W 23D 18L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Warta Poznań's form line: 21W 19D 27L from 67 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.22 for Warta Poznań. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 1.94 PPG from 33 outings (19W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 11W 7D 15L from 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.04 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Warta Poznań
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 26W 23D 18L in their last 67 games (1.51 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 21W 19D 27L in their last 67 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Warta Poznań away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.94 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Jagiellonia go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 3-0 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
1
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Jagiellonia 3-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 67%, Warta Poznań 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Jagiellonia) and 30% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 36%; Warta Poznań in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 30% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 30% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Warta Poznań 3-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.00 xG and Warta Poznań 0.90 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Warta Poznań landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.40 / defence 1.07 against Warta Poznań attack 0.76 / defence 0.97, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 61% | Draw 24% | Warta Poznań 15%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 63%, Warta Poznań 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.51 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.