Radomiak Radom 5-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Radomiaka to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 July 2025 at 19:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Radomiaka this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Pogon Szczecin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Pogon Szczecin are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Radomiak Radom 3W, Pogon Szczecin 4W, 1D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Radomiak Radom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 68% versus Pogon Szczecin 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Pogon Szczecin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.55 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.038 / defence 1.015 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.042 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.310. Data: 34 Radomiak Radom games / 34 Pogon Szczecin games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 41% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 34%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Pogon Szczecin 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Pogon Szczecin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jul 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 41% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.55 / Pogon Szczecin 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.038 / def 1.015 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.042 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Pogon Szczecin xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 20 July 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Radomiak Radom 5 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 41% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (8 meetings): Radomiak Radom 3W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 4W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 1.04x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.04x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
41%
2.42
25%
4.08
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.93
1.39
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
7%
13.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.39 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 34 games, going 11W 8D 15L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. Radomiak Radom haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.71 PPG from 34 outings (17W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. Pogon Szczecin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 6W 5D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.74 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Pre-Season
Pogon Szczecin
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 11W 8D 15L in their last 34 games (1.21 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 17W 7D 10L in their last 34 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.35 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
2
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 71%, Pogon Szczecin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Radomiak Radom) and 53% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Radomiak Radom's games and 53% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 53% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Radomiak Radom run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Pogon Szczecin 5-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.55 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.39 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 41% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 34%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, Pogon Szczecin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.