Radomiak Radom 1-1 Nieciecza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 6 as Radomiak Radom welcome Nieciecza to Stadion Radomiaka. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 August 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion Radomiaka: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nieciecza stand at 2W 1D 2L from 5 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Nieciecza have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Nieciecza have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Radomiak Radom at 1.30 PPG versus Nieciecza's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Nieciecza and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Nieciecza in-play and half-time data (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 80% and Nieciecza 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 80% | Nieciecza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.71 xG and Nieciecza 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.263 / defence 1.020 | Nieciecza attack 0.991 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.289. Radomiak Radom carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Radomiak Radom games / 5 Nieciecza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 24% | Nieciecza 29%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Nieciecza 3.45. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Radomiak Radom 80% | Nieciecza 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Friday 22 Aug 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 24% | Nieciecza 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.71 / Nieciecza 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.263 / def 1.020 | Nieciecza attack 0.991 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Nieciecza xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 22 August 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Nieciecza.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 47% chance of winning, Nieciecza a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza?
Record (2 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 2 | Nieciecza 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Nieciecza (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Nieciecza's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Nieciecza's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
47%
2.14
24%
4.16
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.01
1.30
Nieciecza xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.30 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nieciecza, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nieciecza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.40 PPG, Nieciecza on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nieciecza's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.40 PPG overall record — Nieciecza travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Nieciecza are on 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Defensively: Nieciecza in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Nieciecza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Nieciecza have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Nieciecza away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 2.00 PPG; Nieciecza away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Nieciecza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Nieciecza in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Nieciecza specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Radomiak Radom
4
Draws
0
Nieciecza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza?
From 4 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 0, Nieciecza have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Nieciecza 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 100%, Nieciecza 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Radomiak Radom and 33% for Nieciecza. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nieciecza in 67%; Nieciecza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Nieciecza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Nieciecza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 0% of Nieciecza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 33% of Nieciecza's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nieciecza in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.71 xG and Nieciecza 1.30 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.26 / defence 1.02 against Nieciecza attack 0.99 / defence 0.82, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 24% | Nieciecza 29%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 80%, Nieciecza 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Nieciecza's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.40 PPG, Nieciecza 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.