Pogon Szczecin 0-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 9W 0D 1L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 2.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 0.50 PPG lead over Radomiak Radom (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Pogon Szczecin, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Radomiak Radom — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 4–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pogon Szczecin and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 45% versus Radomiak Radom 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 51% | Radomiak Radom 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.22 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.243 / defence 0.834 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.901 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.199. Data: 48 Pogon Szczecin games / 47 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 67% | Draw 19% | Radomiak Radom 14%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Radomiak Radom 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Pogon Szczecin 20% | Radomiak Radom 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 67% | Draw 19% | Radomiak Radom 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 53% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.22 / Radomiak Radom 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.243 / def 0.834 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.901 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (67%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Radomiak Radom xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Pogon Szczecin 0 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 67% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (6 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 4W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.90x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.32
14%
7.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.12
0.90
Radomiak Radom xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
7.17
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
11%
9.19
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
65.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.90 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 22W 8D 17L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 14W 9D 24L from 47 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.04 PPG from 23 outings (15W 2D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 7W 3D 13L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.26 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 22W 8D 17L in their last 47 games (1.57 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.04 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 44%, Radomiak Radom 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pogon Szczecin) and 56% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 39% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 56% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Pogon Szczecin 0-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.22 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.90 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pogon Szczecin fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.24 / defence 0.83 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 67% | Draw 19% | Radomiak Radom 14%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Radomiak Radom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 51%, Radomiak Radom 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Radomiak Radom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.