Piast Gliwice 3-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 12 as Piast Gliwice welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 10:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Piast Gliwice carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Piast Gliwice: 4 wins from 9 previous clashes against 0 for Cracovia Krakow, with 5 draws across those contests.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The historical record gives Piast Gliwice a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 58% versus Cracovia Krakow 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 53% | Cracovia Krakow 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 2.06 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.221 / defence 1.141 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.852 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.301. Data: 45 Piast Gliwice games / 45 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 53% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 21%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Cracovia Krakow 4.76. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 70% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 53% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Piast Gliwice 2.06 / Cracovia Krakow 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.221 / def 1.141 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.852 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Cracovia Krakow xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 10:15 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Piast Gliwice 3 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 53% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (9 meetings): Piast Gliwice 4W | Draws 5 | Cracovia Krakow 0W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (1.22) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.81
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.32
1.26
Cracovia Krakow xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
13%
7.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
3%
38.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.26 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 16W 10D 19L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 12W 18D 15L from 45 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.29 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (9W 5D 8L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 8D 10L from 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.16 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 10D 19L in their last 45 games (1.29 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 12W 18D 15L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.45 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Piast Gliwice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Piast Gliwice
5
Draws
0
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 5, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Piast Gliwice 3-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 59%, Cracovia Krakow 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Piast Gliwice) and 54% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 41%; Cracovia Krakow in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 46% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 54% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Cracovia Krakow 3-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 2.06 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.26 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.22 / defence 1.14 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 53% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 21%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 53%, Cracovia Krakow 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.29 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.