Piast Gliwice 4-1 Arka Gdynia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Piast Gliwice face Arka Gdynia.

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Match Analysis

Piast Gliwice host Arka Gdynia at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa (matchday 30). Kick-off is Monday 27 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Piast Gliwice — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Arka Gdynia stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Arka Gdynia have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Piast Gliwice at 1.30 PPG versus Arka Gdynia's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Piast Gliwice have won 0, Arka Gdynia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Piast Gliwice 1–2 Arka Gdynia — a Arka Gdynia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Arka Gdynia in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 55% versus Arka Gdynia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 52% | Arka Gdynia 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.75 xG and Arka Gdynia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.881 / defence 1.133 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.862 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.126. Arka Gdynia's defence rating of 1.402 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Piast Gliwice's projected output up. Data: built from Piast Gliwice's last 63 games and Arka Gdynia's last 29.

Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 52% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 23%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.94 | Draw 3.90 | Arka Gdynia 4.40. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Piast Gliwice's last 10 home games and Arka Gdynia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Piast Gliwice 40% (last 10 home games) | Arka Gdynia 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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