Arka Gdynia 0-3 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Arka Gdynia at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Arka Gdynia face Jagiellonia.

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Analysis

Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Gdyni to face Arka Gdynia in Ekstraklasa (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

Arka Gdynia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Arka Gdynia have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Arka Gdynia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Jagiellonia's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Arka Gdynia against 1.10 for Jagiellonia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Arka Gdynia's last 10 home games and Jagiellonia's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Arka Gdynia's games and 70% of Jagiellonia's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Arka Gdynia, 1 for Jagiellonia and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Arka Gdynia 0–4 Jagiellonia — a Jagiellonia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Arka Gdynia — key trading statistics (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arka Gdynia 50% versus Jagiellonia 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arka Gdynia 61% | Jagiellonia 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Arka Gdynia 1.38 xG and Jagiellonia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arka Gdynia attack 1.053 / defence 1.068 | Jagiellonia attack 0.908 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.116. Data: built from Arka Gdynia's last 28 games and Jagiellonia's last 62.

Result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 43% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 29%. Fair-value odds: Arka Gdynia 2.33 | Draw 3.55 | Jagiellonia 3.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Arka Gdynia as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arka Gdynia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Arka Gdynia 80% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 70% (last 10 away games).

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