Motor Lublin 4-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 39%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Arena Lublin to face Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Current Form
Motor Lublin's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Motor Lublin's home record over their last 7 home games: 2W 2D 3L (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Pogon Szczecin have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pogon Szczecin are 0.70 PPG clear of Motor Lublin over their recent games (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Motor Lublin — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 46% versus Pogon Szczecin 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 38% | Pogon Szczecin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.34 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.846 / defence 1.275 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.830 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.184. Motor Lublin's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pogon Szczecin's projected output up. Data: built from Motor Lublin's last 13 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 47.
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 39% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 35%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.58 | Draw 3.79 | Pogon Szczecin 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Motor Lublin at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Motor Lublin 43% (last 7 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 14 | Venue: Arena Lublin • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 39% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Motor Lublin 1.34 / Pogon Szczecin 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 0.846 / def 1.275 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.830 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Pogon Szczecin xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Arena Lublin.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Motor Lublin 4 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lublin.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 14) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 39% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Motor Lublin's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.83x) against Motor Lublin's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Motor Lublin's last 13 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.79
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.59
1.25
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.25 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Motor Lublin's recent record stands at 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 7W 1D 5L across 13 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Motor Lublin heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Motor Lublin have managed 2W 2D 2L from their last 6 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 0W 1D 5L across their last 6 away games, a 0.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Motor Lublin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Motor Lublin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.46 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Motor Lublin (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Motor Lublin
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 1D 5L in their last 13 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Motor Lublin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.33 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Motor Lublin or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Motor Lublin on 14 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Motor Lublin have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Motor Lublin
0
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Motor Lublin have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 50%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Motor Lublin) and 50% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Motor Lublin have failed to score in 33% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Motor Lublin cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Pogon Szczecin 4-2 at Arena Lublin, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.34 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.25 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Motor Lublin beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.83 / defence 1.07, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 39% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 35%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 38%, Pogon Szczecin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Motor Lublin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.