GKS Katowice 1-2 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GKS Katowice at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion ul. Bukowa plays host to GKS Katowice versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Monday 4 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
GKS Katowice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GKS Katowice have posted 2W 3D 2L at Stadion ul. Bukowa — 1.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Korona Kielce (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Korona Kielce have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for GKS Katowice, 1.10 for Korona Kielce — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
GKS Katowice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GKS Katowice 46% versus Korona Kielce 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GKS Katowice 62% | Korona Kielce 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GKS Katowice 1.36 xG and Korona Kielce 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GKS Katowice attack 0.842 / defence 0.978 | Korona Kielce attack 0.740 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.178. Data: 13 GKS Katowice games / 47 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GKS Katowice 49% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 24%. Fair-value odds: GKS Katowice 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Korona Kielce 4.17. GKS Katowice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GKS Katowice as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GKS Katowice if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: GKS Katowice 57% | Korona Kielce 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion ul. Bukowa • Kick-off: Monday 4 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GKS Katowice 49% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG GKS Katowice 1.36 / Korona Kielce 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: GKS Katowice attack 0.842 / def 0.978 | Korona Kielce attack 0.740 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: GKS Katowice (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
GKS Katowice xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Korona Kielce xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce kick off?
GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 4 November 2024 at Stadion ul. Bukowa.
What was the final score in GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce?
GKS Katowice 1 - 2 Korona Kielce.
Where is GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion ul. Bukowa.
What competition is GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce part of?
GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives GKS Katowice a 49% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GKS Katowice the favourite.
Will both teams score in GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both GKS Katowice and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Korona Kielce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GKS Katowice and Korona Kielce in?
GKS Katowice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GKS Katowice's attack rating (0.84) and Korona Kielce's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.74x) against GKS Katowice's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GKS Katowice Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.59
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
GKS Katowice xG
Total xG
2.21
0.85
Korona Kielce xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
6%
16.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are GKS Katowice and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for GKS Katowice and 0.85 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GKS Katowice's recent record stands at 4W 4D 5L from 13 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Korona Kielce, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 7L across 13 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for GKS Katowice against 0.92 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GKS Katowice have managed 2W 3D 2L from 7 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Korona Kielce's away record stands at 1W 3D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GKS Katowice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GKS Katowice are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 0.77 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GKS Katowice
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GKS Katowice and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
GKS Katowice have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GKS Katowice at home or Korona Kielce away?
GKS Katowice's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GKS Katowice at home: 1.29 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.86 PPG.
Have GKS Katowice or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
GKS Katowice have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GKS Katowice have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
GKS Katowice
1
Draws
2
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Korona Kielce?
From 4 meetings on record, GKS Katowice have won 1, Korona Kielce have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GKS Katowice and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-1 GKS Katowice.
Who has won more matches between GKS Katowice and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Korona Kielce see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GKS Katowice 57%, Korona Kielce 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (GKS Katowice) and 43% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice have failed to score in 43% of games; Korona Kielce in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GKS Katowice home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GKS Katowice play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of GKS Katowice's recent matches and 43% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GKS Katowice vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of GKS Katowice's recent games and 43% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GKS Katowice and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
GKS Katowice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Korona Kielce defy the odds to beat GKS Katowice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat GKS Katowice 1-2 at Stadion ul. Bukowa, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.36 xG and Korona Kielce 0.85 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Korona Kielce outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Korona Kielce attack 0.74 / defence 1.07, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 49% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 24%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Korona Kielce win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 62%, Korona Kielce 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GKS Katowice's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.23 PPG, Korona Kielce 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.