Legia Warszawa 1-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Raków Częstochowa make the trip to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Form
Legia Warszawa (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Raków Częstochowa, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Raków Częstochowa have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 64% versus Raków Częstochowa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 51% | Raków Częstochowa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.57 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.934 / defence 0.938 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.193 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.111. Data: 59 Legia Warszawa games / 59 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 30%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Raków Częstochowa 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Raków Częstochowa 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.57 / Raków Częstochowa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.934 / def 0.938 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.193 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Raków Częstochowa xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 44% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (9 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 3 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 0.93x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.19x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.81
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.81
1.24
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
6%
16.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.24 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 59 games, going 21W 20D 18L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.80 PPG from 59 outings (31W 13D 15L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.80 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 14W 8D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.79 points per game from 29 outings (15W 7D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.44 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 21W 20D 18L in their last 59 games (1.41 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 13D 15L in their last 59 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.72 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
4
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 59%, Raków Częstochowa 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Legia Warszawa) and 41% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 45%; Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 45% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 41% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.57 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.19 / defence 1.19, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 30%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 51%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.41 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.