Legia Warszawa 4-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 September 2025, 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadion Wojska Polskiego — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Legia Warszawa) versus 1.20 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 3 for Radomiak Radom and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Radomiak Radom trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 62% and Radomiak Radom 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 54% | Radomiak Radom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.73 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.915 / defence 0.923 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.015 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.186. Data: 39 Legia Warszawa games / 41 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 24%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Radomiak Radom 4.17. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.73 / Radomiak Radom 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.915 / def 0.923 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.015 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Radomiak Radom xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Legia Warszawa 4 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 52% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
Record (7 meetings): Legia Warszawa 4W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (0.92) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.13
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.84
1.11
Radomiak Radom xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
4%
23.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.11 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 17W 10D 12L from 39 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 17L across 39 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.56 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 10W 5D 4L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 4W 4D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.46 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 69%.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 17W 10D 12L in their last 39 games (1.56 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.84 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2026, when Legia Warszawa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 6, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 5-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 63%, Radomiak Radom 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Legia Warszawa and 68% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 26% of games; Radomiak Radom in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Legia Warszawa's games and 63% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 68% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Radomiak Radom 4-1 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.73 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.11 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.01 / defence 1.20, drawn from 39/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 24%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 54%, Radomiak Radom 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.56 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.