Legia Warszawa 4-1 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Legia Warszawa face GKS Katowice.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host GKS Katowice at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 19:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, GKS Katowice have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, GKS Katowice have posted 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from their last 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Legia Warszawa 1.30 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
GKS Katowice in-play and half-time data (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 58% versus GKS Katowice 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 33% | GKS Katowice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.79 xG and GKS Katowice 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.174 / defence 1.032 | GKS Katowice attack 1.191 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.197. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 46 games and GKS Katowice's last 12.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 23% | GKS Katowice 32%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.20 | Draw 4.37 | GKS Katowice 3.15. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and GKS Katowice's last 5 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 60% (last 10 home games) | GKS Katowice 20% (last 5 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 23% | GKS Katowice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Legia Warszawa 1.79 / GKS Katowice 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.174 / def 1.032 | GKS Katowice attack 1.191 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.47
GKS Katowice xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice FAQs
What time does Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice?
Legia Warszawa 4 - 1 GKS Katowice.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice part of?
Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 13) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 45% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.17x the league average against GKS Katowice's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GKS Katowice's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Legia Warszawa's last 46 games and GKS Katowice's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
45%
2.20
23%
4.37
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.26
1.47
GKS Katowice xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
5%
18.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.47 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 5W 4D 3L from 12 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five.
GKS Katowice, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 4L across 12 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.58 PPG, GKS Katowice on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GKS Katowice's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across their last 5 away games, a 1.40 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.50 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
Legia Warszawa (Home) vs GKS Katowice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Legia Warszawa
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
❓ Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice Form FAQs
What form are Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or GKS Katowice away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.40 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or GKS Katowice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, GKS Katowice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Oct 2024, when Legia Warszawa won Legia Warszawa 4-1 GKS Katowice.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting GKS Katowice specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
0
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Legia Warszawa have won 3, GKS Katowice have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: GKS Katowice 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 80%, GKS Katowice 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Legia Warszawa and 60% for GKS Katowice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice in 40%; GKS Katowice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs GKS Katowice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 20% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 60% of GKS Katowice's.
Do Legia Warszawa and GKS Katowice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 80% of GKS Katowice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of GKS Katowice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat GKS Katowice 4-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.79 xG and GKS Katowice 1.47 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.17 / defence 1.03 against GKS Katowice attack 1.19 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 23% | GKS Katowice 32%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 33%, GKS Katowice 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.58 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.