Jagiellonia 1-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chorten Arena plays host to Jagiellonia versus Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jagiellonia have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Chorten Arena, Jagiellonia have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.80 for Pogon Szczecin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Pogon Szczecin hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Pogon Szczecin have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 66% versus Pogon Szczecin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 66% | Pogon Szczecin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.82 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.083 / defence 0.994 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.157 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.243. Data: 67 Jagiellonia games / 67 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 47% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 30%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Pogon Szczecin 3.33. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Pogon Szczecin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 47% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Jagiellonia 1.82 / Pogon Szczecin 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.083 / def 0.994 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.157 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Jagiellonia 1 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 47% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (7 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 4W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.08) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.16x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
47%
2.14
23%
4.35
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.25
1.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
5%
20.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.43 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia come into this having played 67 games, going 35W 18D 14L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.67 PPG from 67 outings (33W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.67 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jagiellonia's home form reads 21W 8D 4L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.27 points per game from 33 outings (11W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.75 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 35W 18D 14L in their last 67 games (1.84 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 33W 13D 21L in their last 67 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.15 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Jagiellonia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 3-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 61%, Pogon Szczecin 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Jagiellonia) and 48% (Pogon Szczecin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 33%; Pogon Szczecin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 42% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Jagiellonia's matches and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's.
Do Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 34, as Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.82 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.43 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.08 / defence 0.99 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.16 / defence 1.07, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 47% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 30%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 66%, Pogon Szczecin 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.84 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.