Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Jagiellonia (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Chorten Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Jagiellonia, 4 for Cracovia Krakow and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 63% versus Cracovia Krakow 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 63% | Cracovia Krakow 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.52 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.859 / defence 1.109 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.832 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.316. Data: 46 Jagiellonia games / 47 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 42% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 28%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Cracovia Krakow 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 50% | Cracovia Krakow 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 42% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Jagiellonia 1.52 / Cracovia Krakow 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.859 / def 1.109 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.832 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cracovia Krakow xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Chorten Arena.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 42% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (10 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 4 | Cracovia Krakow 4W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.83x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.29
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.74
1.21
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.21 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 21W 11D 14L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 11W 18D 17L from 46 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jagiellonia are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cracovia Krakow.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 1.77 PPG from 22 outings (12W 3D 7L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 8D 11L from 22 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.09 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 21W 11D 14L in their last 46 games (1.61 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 11W 18D 17L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.77 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-2 on 10 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
4
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 68%, Cracovia Krakow 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Jagiellonia and 54% for Cracovia Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 41%; Cracovia Krakow in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jagiellonia's games and 46% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Jagiellonia's matches and 54% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.