Gornik Zabrze 1-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin meet at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gornik Zabrze's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gornik Zabrze's home record at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.50 for Pogon Szczecin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pogon Szczecin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gornik Zabrze lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 56% versus Pogon Szczecin 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 47% | Pogon Szczecin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.45 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.061 / defence 0.965 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.146 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.108. Data: 36 Gornik Zabrze games / 36 Pogon Szczecin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 42% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 31%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Pogon Szczecin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Pogon Szczecin 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Friday 2 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 42% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.45 / Pogon Szczecin 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.061 / def 0.965 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.146 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Pogon Szczecin xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 2 August 2024 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 42% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (6 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 3W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.15x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.73
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.68
1.23
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.23 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 36 games, going 15W 9D 12L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.64 PPG from 36 outings (17W 8D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.64 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 9W 5D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.78 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 15W 9D 12L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 17W 8D 11L in their last 36 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.88 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won 1-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gornik Zabrze
1
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 47%, Pogon Szczecin 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Gornik Zabrze) and 47% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 35%; Pogon Szczecin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 41% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 47% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Pogon Szczecin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.45 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.23 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.15 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 42% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 31%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Pogon Szczecin 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.50 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.