Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Raków Częstochowa — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 1 for Raków Częstochowa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 58% versus Raków Częstochowa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 46% | Raków Częstochowa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.41 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.189 / defence 1.247 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.093 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.191. Data: 52 Cracovia Krakow games / 52 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 33% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 42%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Raków Częstochowa 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Cracovia Krakow dominate the H2H record, yet Raków Częstochowa are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 80% | Raków Częstochowa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 33% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.41 / Raków Częstochowa 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.189 / def 1.247 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.093 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Raków Częstochowa xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 33% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (6 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 3W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
33%
3.04
25%
4.02
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.03
1.62
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
6%
15.42
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.62 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 17W 19D 16L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 24W 16D 12L from 52 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.35 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (8W 10D 8L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 10W 8D 8L from 26 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.52 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 19D 16L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 24W 16D 12L in their last 52 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.31 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 65%, Raków Częstochowa 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Cracovia Krakow) and 42% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 58% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 42% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cracovia Krakow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.41 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.62 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.19 / defence 1.25 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 33% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 42%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 46%, Raków Częstochowa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.35 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.