Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 August 2025, 19:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 1.70 (Legia Warszawa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cracovia Krakow register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Cracovia Krakow, 3 for Legia Warszawa and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 74% and Legia Warszawa 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 60% | Legia Warszawa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.33 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.995 / defence 0.935 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.083 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.229. Data: 40 Cracovia Krakow games / 38 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 39% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 35%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Legia Warszawa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 39% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.33 / Legia Warszawa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.995 / def 0.935 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.083 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Legia Warszawa xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 39% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
Record (8 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 4W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 3W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
39%
2.58
27%
3.77
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.57
1.24
Legia Warszawa xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
9%
10.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.24 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 10D 12L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.61 PPG from 38 outings (17W 10D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.53 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.71 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Legia Warszawa in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 16W 10D 12L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 17W 10D 11L in their last 38 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.42 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Legia Warszawa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cracovia Krakow at 74%, Legia Warszawa at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cracovia Krakow) and 53% (Legia Warszawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 58% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 53% of Legia Warszawa's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Legia Warszawa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Legia Warszawa 2-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.33 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.08 / defence 0.84, drawn from 40/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 39% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 35%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 60%, Legia Warszawa 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.53 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.