Viking 3-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking at SR-Bank Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rosenborg are 0.60 PPG clear of Viking in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.40 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 61% versus Rosenborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 70% | Rosenborg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.37 xG and Rosenborg 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.089 / defence 1.326 | Rosenborg attack 0.859 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.369. Data: 23 Viking games / 23 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 33% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 42%. Fair-value odds: Viking 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Rosenborg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | Rosenborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 33% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Viking 1.37 / Rosenborg 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.089 / def 1.326 | Rosenborg attack 0.859 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Rosenborg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Rosenborg kick off?
Viking vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 November 2020 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Rosenborg?
Viking 3 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Viking vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Rosenborg part of?
Viking vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 33% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Viking and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Rosenborg in?
Viking (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.86x) against Viking's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
33%
3.01
25%
4.00
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Viking xG
Total xG
2.92
1.56
Rosenborg xG
3.01
33%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
7%
14.29
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Viking and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Viking and 1.56 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking's recent record stands at 8W 6D 9L from 23 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 4L across 23 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Viking heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Viking have managed 4W 3D 4L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 5W 3D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.87 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 8W 6D 9L in their last 23 games (1.30 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 13W 6D 4L in their last 23 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.36 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Viking or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 1-5 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Viking
2
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 3, Rosenborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 73%, Rosenborg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Viking and 54% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 9% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 36%; Rosenborg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Viking's games and 46% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Viking's matches and 54% of Rosenborg's.
Do Viking and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Rosenborg 3-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.37 xG and Rosenborg 1.56 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rosenborg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.09 / defence 1.33 against Rosenborg attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 33% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 42%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 70%, Rosenborg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Viking winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.