Tromso 1-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Tromso face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Tromso welcome Haugesund to Romssa Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 30 March 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Tromso have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Tromso have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Haugesund — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tromso at 0.90 PPG versus Haugesund's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Tromso have won 3, Haugesund 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Tromso 0–2 Haugesund — a Haugesund win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tromso trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Haugesund trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 48% versus Haugesund 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 57% | Haugesund 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.81 xG and Haugesund 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.017 / defence 0.985 | Haugesund attack 0.971 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.223. Data: built from Tromso's last 30 games and Haugesund's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tromso 52% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 25%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 1.91 | Draw 4.34 | Haugesund 4.08. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Tromso's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Tromso 40% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Tromso 30 games, Haugesund 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 1 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 52% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Tromso 1.81 / Haugesund 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.017 / def 0.985 | Haugesund attack 0.971 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Tromso (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Haugesund xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tromso vs Haugesund FAQs
What time does Tromso vs Haugesund kick off?
Tromso vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Haugesund?
Tromso 1 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Tromso vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Haugesund part of?
Tromso vs Haugesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 1) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 52% chance of winning, Haugesund a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tromso and Haugesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tromso vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tromso's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tromso's last 30 games and Haugesund's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.34
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.98
1.17
Haugesund xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
4%
25.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tromso vs Haugesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Tromso and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Tromso and 1.17 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tromso come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 10D 22L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.12 PPG from 60 outings (18W 13D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Tromso carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Tromso's home form reads 14W 6D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 30 away games (5W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tromso are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.03 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
Tromso (Home) vs Haugesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tromso
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Tromso vs Haugesund Form FAQs
What form are Tromso and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 28W 10D 22L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Haugesund away?
Tromso's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.60 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Tromso or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Haugesund in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 26 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Tromso have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Jul 2021, when Haugesund won Haugesund 3-0 Tromso.
Tromso's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
1
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Tromso vs Haugesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Haugesund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tromso have won 5, Haugesund have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tromso and Haugesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2025: Haugesund 2-3 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Haugesund?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 53%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Tromso) and 50% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso have failed to score in 27% of games; Haugesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tromso vs Haugesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tromso and Haugesund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Tromso's recent matches and 50% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tromso and Haugesund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Tromso's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Tromso and Haugesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Tromso's recent matches and 63% of Haugesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Haugesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Haugesund 1-0 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.81 xG and Haugesund 1.17 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tromso fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Haugesund attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 52% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 25%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 57%, Haugesund 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.