Ham-Kam 2-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 1 as Ham-Kam welcome Kristiansund BK to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Briskeby Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ham-Kam at 0.90 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Ham-Kam have won 1, Kristiansund BK 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Ham-Kam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 41% versus Kristiansund BK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 34% | Kristiansund BK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.42 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.898 / defence 1.000 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.950 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.223. Data: 30 Ham-Kam games / 30 Kristiansund BK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 31%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Kristiansund BK 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Ham-Kam 20% | Kristiansund BK 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Ham-Kam 1.42 / Kristiansund BK 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.898 / def 1.000 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.950 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Kristiansund BK xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Ham-Kam 2 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 43% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK?
Record (4 meetings): Ham-Kam 1W | Draws 2 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.90x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.81
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.58
1.16
Kristiansund BK xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.16 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 8W 10D 14L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 9W 10D 13L from 32 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.06 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L).
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 4W 4D 8L from 16 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.06 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 8W 10D 14L in their last 32 games (1.06 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 9W 10D 13L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.00 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
4
Draws
1
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Kristiansund BK have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-2 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ham-Kam 25% BTTS, Kristiansund BK 44%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Ham-Kam and 38% for Kristiansund BK.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 50% of games; Kristiansund BK in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 44% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 38% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Kristiansund BK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Kristiansund BK 2-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.42 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.16 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 31%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 34%, Kristiansund BK 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.06 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.