Stromsgodset 1-1 Start – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Start fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stromsgodset and Start meet at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 October 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stromsgodset have posted 3W 4D 3L at Marienlyst Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Start (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 7L across 9 road games this term (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.22 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.20 for Start. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Stromsgodset, 0 for Start and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stromsgodset half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Start half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 60% versus Start 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 60% | Start 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.00 xG and Start 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.851 / defence 1.373 | Start attack 0.611 / defence 1.585. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.391. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.585 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Stromsgodset games / 20 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 57% | Draw 22% | Start 22%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Start 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 60% | Start 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 57% | Draw 22% | Start 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Stromsgodset 2.00 / Start 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.851 / def 1.373 | Start attack 0.611 / def 1.585 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Start xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Start kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Start kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 October 2020 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Start?
Stromsgodset 1 - 1 Start.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Start part of?
Stromsgodset vs Start is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 57% chance of winning, Start a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Start?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Stromsgodset and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Start?
Record (1 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 1 | Start 0W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Start in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Start (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (0.85) and Start's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Start's attack (0.61x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
57%
1.77
22%
4.63
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.17
1.17
Start xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
14%
7.38
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
3%
33.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Start expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.17 for Start, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 5W 8D 7L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Start's form line: 4W 6D 10L from 20 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Stromsgodset against 0.90 for Start. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (2W 4D 3L).
On the road, Start have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Start's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.20 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Start in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 5W 8D 7L in their last 20 games (1.15 PPG), while Start have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Start away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.11 PPG; Start away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 October 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Start?
From 2 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 0, Start have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Start last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2020, when Stromsgodset 1-1 Start.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 67%, Start 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stromsgodset and 56% for Start. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset have failed to score in 33% of games; Start in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Start?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Stromsgodset's games and 44% of Start's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stromsgodset's matches and 56% of Start's.
Do Stromsgodset and Start tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Start in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset and Start share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Start finished level at 1-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.00 xG and Start 1.17 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.85 / defence 1.37 against Start attack 0.61 / defence 1.58, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 57% | Draw 22% | Start 22%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 60%, Start 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Start's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.15 PPG, Start 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Start (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.