Stromsgodset 0-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stromsgodset face Ham-Kam.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Ham-Kam at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ham-Kam stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ham-Kam's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stromsgodset 1.60 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Stromsgodset have won 0, Ham-Kam 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2023, ended Stromsgodset 0–2 Ham-Kam — a Ham-Kam win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 49% versus Ham-Kam 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 54% | Ham-Kam 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.06 xG and Ham-Kam 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.913 / defence 0.874 | Ham-Kam attack 0.896 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.393. Ham-Kam's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stromsgodset's projected output up. Data: built from Stromsgodset's last 57 games and Ham-Kam's last 57.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 60% | Draw 21% | Ham-Kam 19%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.67 | Draw 4.80 | Ham-Kam 5.16. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stromsgodset 70% (last 10 home games) | Ham-Kam 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 28 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 60% | Draw 21% | Ham-Kam 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Stromsgodset 2.06 / Ham-Kam 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.913 / def 0.874 | Ham-Kam attack 0.896 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ham-Kam xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam FAQs
What time does Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Stromsgodset 0 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam part of?
Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 28) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 60% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stromsgodset's last 57 games and Ham-Kam's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.80
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.15
1.09
Ham-Kam xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
2%
40.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.09 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 57 games, going 20W 9D 28L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.07 PPG from 57 outings (15W 16D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.21 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 14W 3D 11L across their last 28 home games, a 1.61 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 28 away games (5W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.23 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
Stromsgodset (Home) vs Ham-Kam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stromsgodset
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam Form FAQs
What form are Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 20W 9D 28L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 15W 16D 26L in their last 57 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Ham-Kam away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.61 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 14 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 May 2025, when Ham-Kam won Stromsgodset 0-3 Ham-Kam.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Stromsgodset have won 2, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2025: Ham-Kam 1-2 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 61%, Ham-Kam 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Stromsgodset and 68% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Stromsgodset's games and 68% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Stromsgodset's matches and 68% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Stromsgodset and Ham-Kam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 79% of Ham-Kam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ham-Kam defy the odds to beat Stromsgodset 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Stromsgodset 0-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.06 xG and Ham-Kam 1.09 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stromsgodset fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.91 / defence 0.87 against Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 1.26, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 60% | Draw 21% | Ham-Kam 19%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Ham-Kam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 54%, Ham-Kam 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.21 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.