Rosenborg 1-3 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rosenborg face Stromsgodset.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Stromsgodset travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg in Eliteserien (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rosenborg stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rosenborg's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Stromsgodset — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Stromsgodset's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Rosenborg) versus 1.30 (Stromsgodset). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Rosenborg, 2 for Stromsgodset and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2023, ended Rosenborg 1–0 Stromsgodset — a Rosenborg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Stromsgodset trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 66% versus Stromsgodset 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 72% | Stromsgodset 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.44 xG and Stromsgodset 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.040 / defence 0.901 | Stromsgodset attack 0.695 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.357. Stromsgodset bring a tight defence (rating 0.793, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Rosenborg's projected output down. Stromsgodset's attack rating of 0.695 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 58 games and Stromsgodset's last 58.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 51% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 22%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.96 | Draw 3.72 | Stromsgodset 4.51. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 60% (last 10 home games) | Stromsgodset 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 29 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 51% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Rosenborg 1.44 / Stromsgodset 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.040 / def 0.901 | Stromsgodset attack 0.695 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Stromsgodset xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset FAQs
What time does Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg 1 - 3 Stromsgodset.
Where is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset part of?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 29) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 51% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rosenborg and Stromsgodset will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.04) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rosenborg's last 58 games and Stromsgodset's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.72
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.29
0.85
Stromsgodset xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
5%
19.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.85 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 26W 14D 18L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 20W 9D 29L from 58 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.14 PPG from their last 29 home games (19W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 6W 6D 17L from their last 29 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.29 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Rosenborg (Home) vs Stromsgodset (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rosenborg
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset Form FAQs
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 26W 14D 18L in their last 58 games (1.59 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 20W 9D 29L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Stromsgodset away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.14 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 30 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
1
Draws
4
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rosenborg have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Stromsgodset last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 November 2025: Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 59%, Stromsgodset 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Rosenborg) and 41% (Stromsgodset). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rosenborg and Stromsgodset matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 38% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Rosenborg's matches and 41% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Rosenborg and Stromsgodset matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 55% of Stromsgodset's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Rosenborg 1-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.44 xG and Stromsgodset 0.85 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Stromsgodset attack 0.69 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 51% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 22%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Stromsgodset win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 72%, Stromsgodset 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.