Stromsgodset 2-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 49%, yet in-form Fredrikstad provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Fredrikstad at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Fredrikstad have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fredrikstad — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 0, Fredrikstad 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2024, ended 1–4 with Fredrikstad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fredrikstad in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 52% versus Fredrikstad 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 44% | Fredrikstad 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.57 xG and Fredrikstad 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.894 / defence 1.007 | Fredrikstad attack 0.854 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.239. Data: 55 Stromsgodset games / 25 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 26%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Fredrikstad 3.85. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fredrikstad (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 60% | Fredrikstad 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Stromsgodset 1.57 / Fredrikstad 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.894 / def 1.007 | Fredrikstad attack 0.854 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Fredrikstad xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad?
Stromsgodset 2 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad part of?
Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 49% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad?
Record (1 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 0 | Fredrikstad 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Fredrikstad (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Fredrikstad's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
49%
2.04
25%
3.96
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.63
1.07
Fredrikstad xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
5%
18.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.07 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stromsgodset come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 8D 10L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fredrikstad sit at 1.72 PPG from 25 outings (12W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stromsgodset's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Fredrikstad have taken 1.67 points per game from 12 outings (6W 2D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.36 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 12W 7D 6L in their last 25 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Fredrikstad away?
Fredrikstad's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.33 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fredrikstad go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2024, when Fredrikstad won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Fredrikstad specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stromsgodset
0
Draws
3
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad?
From 4 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-3 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 58%, Fredrikstad 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stromsgodset) and 42% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 42% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 42% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Fredrikstad 2-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.57 xG and Fredrikstad 1.07 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fredrikstad landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Fredrikstad attack 0.85 / defence 1.16, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 26%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 44%, Fredrikstad 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.