Stromsgodset 1-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 37%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bodo/Glimt travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset in Eliteserien (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stromsgodset stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stromsgodset's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Stromsgodset have won 0, Bodo/Glimt 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 9.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Jun 2021, ended Stromsgodset 2–7 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 9.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 58% versus Bodo/Glimt 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 64% | Bodo/Glimt 75%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stromsgodset surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.47 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.107 / defence 0.847 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.278 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.254. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.738, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Stromsgodset's projected output down. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.278, which lifts their away xG to 1.36. Data: built from Stromsgodset's last 52 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 52.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 37% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 33%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.67 | Draw 3.34 | Bodo/Glimt 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stromsgodset 60% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 23 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 October 2021 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 37% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Stromsgodset 1.47 / Bodo/Glimt 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.107 / def 0.847 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.278 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Stromsgodset 1 - 1 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 23) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 37% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.11x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stromsgodset's last 52 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.34
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.83
1.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.36 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 15D 22L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.46 PPG from 52 outings (40W 8D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.31 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 9W 8D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.24 points per game from their last 25 away games (17W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.87 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 62%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Stromsgodset (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stromsgodset
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 15W 15D 22L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 8D 4L in their last 52 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.40 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 15 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jun 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 7-2 Stromsgodset.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stromsgodset have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2025: Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 64%, Bodo/Glimt at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Stromsgodset and 76% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Stromsgodset's games and 68% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Stromsgodset's matches and 76% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 72% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 1-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.47 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.36 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.28 / defence 0.74, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 37% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 33%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 64%, Bodo/Glimt 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.