Stabaek vs Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stabaek host Stromsgodset at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stabaek — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stabaek's home record at Nadderud Stadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Stromsgodset have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Stabaek have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Stabaek have won 2, Stromsgodset 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2020, ended 4–0 with Stabaek winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stabaek in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 50% versus Stromsgodset 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 53% | Stromsgodset 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.68 xG and Stromsgodset 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.991 / defence 1.051 | Stromsgodset attack 1.042 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.394. Data: 31 Stabaek games / 31 Stromsgodset games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 41% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 34%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Stromsgodset 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stabaek are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 50% | Stromsgodset 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 41% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Stabaek 1.68 / Stromsgodset 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.991 / def 1.051 | Stromsgodset attack 1.042 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Stromsgodset xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Stromsgodset part of?
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 41% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Stabaek and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Stromsgodset?
Record (2 meetings): Stabaek 2W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 0W.
What form are Stabaek and Stromsgodset in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.99) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
41%
2.45
25%
3.97
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Stabaek xG
Total xG
3.21
1.53
Stromsgodset xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
6%
15.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.53 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 9W 12D 9L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 1.30 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.37 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Stromsgodset away?
Stabaek's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.40 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Stromsgodset runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2020, when Stabaek won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stabaek
1
Draws
3
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Stromsgodset?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2023, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 40%, Stromsgodset 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stabaek) and 73% (Stromsgodset). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games; Stromsgodset in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stabaek's recent matches and 67% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Stabaek's matches and 73% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Stabaek and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 9, as Stabaek and Stromsgodset drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.68 xG and Stromsgodset 1.53 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Stromsgodset attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 41% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 34%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 53%, Stromsgodset 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.30 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.