Stabaek vs Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stabaek face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stabaek and Molde meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Stabaek (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Nadderud Stadion this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Molde are 1.10 PPG clear of Stabaek in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Molde have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Stabaek's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Molde winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 54% versus Molde 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 61% | Molde 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 0.86 xG and Molde 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.613 / defence 1.359 | Molde attack 1.231 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.807 / away 1.219. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.613 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Molde's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.231 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Stabaek games / 54 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 13% | Draw 25% | Molde 63%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 7.69 | Draw 4.00 | Molde 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Molde (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 40% | Molde 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 13% | Draw 25% | Molde 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Stabaek 0.86 / Molde 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.613 / def 1.359 | Molde attack 1.231 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.807 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Molde (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Molde xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Molde kick off?
Stabaek vs Molde kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Molde part of?
Stabaek vs Molde is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 13% chance of winning, Molde a 63% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stabaek and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Molde?
Record (4 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 4W.
What form are Stabaek and Molde in?
Stabaek (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Molde (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.61) and Molde's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.23x) against Stabaek's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
13%
7.86
25%
4.07
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.90
2.04
Molde xG
7.86
13%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
13%
7.68
42%
2.35
Win to Nil
2%
60.40
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Stabaek and 2.04 for Molde, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Molde?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stabaek come into this having played 54 games, going 13W 18D 23L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Molde sit at 2.02 PPG from 54 outings (34W 7D 13L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Stabaek — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stabaek's home form reads 7W 9D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.63 points per game from 27 outings (13W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.48 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Molde in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 13W 18D 23L in their last 54 games (1.06 PPG), while Molde have gone 34W 7D 13L in their last 54 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.11 PPG; Molde away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Molde in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 28 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
0
Draws
5
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Molde?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Molde have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Stabaek 0-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 41%, Molde 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Stabaek and 78% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Stabaek's games and 70% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stabaek vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Stabaek's matches and 78% of Molde's.
Do Stabaek and Molde tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Molde in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek and Molde finished level at 0-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 0.86 xG and Molde 2.04 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Molde landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.61 / defence 1.36 against Molde attack 1.23 / defence 0.77, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 13% | Draw 25% | Molde 63%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 61%, Molde 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.