Stabaek 5-2 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stabaek and Ham-Kam meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 4 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's home record at Nadderud Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Stabaek are significantly better at Nadderud Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Ham-Kam (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Ham-Kam have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ham-Kam are 1.50 PPG clear of Stabaek in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.70 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Stabaek, 1 for Ham-Kam and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 2–3 with Ham-Kam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 46% versus Ham-Kam 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 50% | Ham-Kam 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.11 xG and Ham-Kam 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.525 / defence 0.943 | Ham-Kam attack 1.002 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.271. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.525 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Stabaek's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Stabaek games / 52 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 30% | Ham-Kam 37%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Ham-Kam 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 30% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 30% | Ham-Kam 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Stabaek 1.11 / Ham-Kam 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.525 / def 0.943 | Ham-Kam attack 1.002 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Ham-Kam xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Stabaek vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 4 October 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Ham-Kam?
Stabaek 5 - 2 Ham-Kam.
Where is Stabaek vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Ham-Kam part of?
Stabaek vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 33% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stabaek and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Ham-Kam?
Record (1 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 0 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Ham-Kam in?
Stabaek (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.53x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (1.00x) against Stabaek's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
33%
3.04
30%
3.33
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.32
1.20
Ham-Kam xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.20 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stabaek come into this having played 22 games, going 4W 5D 13L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (7W 3D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Stabaek against 1.09 for Ham-Kam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Stabaek's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (2W 0D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ham-Kam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stabaek come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.41 scored and 2.09 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 5D 13L in their last 22 games (0.77 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 7W 3D 12L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Ham-Kam away?
Stabaek's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.10 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Stabaek
0
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Ham-Kam?
From 2 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2023, when Stabaek 5-2 Ham-Kam.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 30%, Ham-Kam 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 30% for Stabaek and 90% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 50% of games; Ham-Kam in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Stabaek's recent matches and 60% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 30% of Stabaek's matches and 90% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Stabaek and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stabaek run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Ham-Kam 5-2 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.11 xG and Ham-Kam 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Stabaek beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.53 / defence 0.94 against Ham-Kam attack 1.00 / defence 1.21, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 33% | Draw 30% | Ham-Kam 37%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Stabaek win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 50%, Ham-Kam 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 0.77 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stabaek win broke the near-deadlock. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.