Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Stromsgodset at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 1 October 2023 at 19:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bodo/Glimt stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stromsgodset — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stromsgodset away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 1 for Stromsgodset and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Jun 2023, ended Bodo/Glimt 0–2 Stromsgodset — a Stromsgodset win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Stromsgodset trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 67% versus Stromsgodset 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 73% | Stromsgodset 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.11 xG and Stromsgodset 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.382 / defence 1.065 | Stromsgodset attack 0.791 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.762 / away 1.284. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.382 — their 2.11 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Stromsgodset's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 52 games and Stromsgodset's last 52.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 18%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.66 | Draw 4.62 | Stromsgodset 5.53. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Stromsgodset's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 home games) | Stromsgodset 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 20 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.11 / Stromsgodset 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.382 / def 1.065 | Stromsgodset attack 0.791 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.762 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Stromsgodset xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 20) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 60% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.38) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 52 games and Stromsgodset's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.62
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.19
1.08
Stromsgodset xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
12%
8.24
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
2%
45.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.08 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 2.10 PPG on a 33W 10D 9L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 17W 9D 26L from 52 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 2.12 PPG from their last 25 home games (15W 8D 2L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 6D 14L from their last 25 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.35 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Stromsgodset (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 33W 10D 9L in their last 52 games (2.10 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 17W 9D 26L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Stromsgodset away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.12 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 15 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jun 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 7-2 Stromsgodset.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2025: Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 68%, Stromsgodset 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Bodo/Glimt and 48% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 68% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 44% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 48% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 60% of Stromsgodset's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Stromsgodset 2-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.11 xG and Stromsgodset 1.08 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stromsgodset landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.38 / defence 1.06 against Stromsgodset attack 0.79 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 60% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 18%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 73%, Stromsgodset 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.