Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Stabaek and Bodo/Glimt meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 02:00 UK time.

Current Form

Stabaek's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Stabaek's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Jun 2021, ended Stabaek 1–4 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Stabaek — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 56% versus Bodo/Glimt 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 60% | Bodo/Glimt 76%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stabaek surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.10 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.830 / defence 1.296 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.022 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.819 / away 1.238. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.730, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Stabaek's projected output down. Stabaek's defence rating of 1.296 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bodo/Glimt's projected output up. Data: built from Stabaek's last 45 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 45.

Result probabilities: Stabaek 23% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 47%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 4.35 | Draw 3.37 | Bodo/Glimt 2.11. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stabaek 50% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 away games).

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