Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 20 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Kristiansund BK to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kristiansund BK — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% versus Kristiansund BK 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% | Kristiansund BK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.09 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.674 / defence 0.803 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.815 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.819 / away 1.238. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 45 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 37% | Kristiansund BK 24%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.56 | Draw 2.70 | Kristiansund BK 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kristiansund BK (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Kristiansund BK 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 37% | Kristiansund BK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.09 / Kristiansund BK 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.674 / def 0.803 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.815 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.819 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Kristiansund BK xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 39% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
Record (2 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.67x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
39%
2.56
37%
2.69
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
1.90
0.81
Kristiansund BK xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.81 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 12W 13D 20L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 20W 14D 11L from 45 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kristiansund BK are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L).
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 7W 9D 6L from 22 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.71 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 67%.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 20W 14D 11L in their last 45 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.41 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 36%, Kristiansund BK 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 59% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 68% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 59% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 20, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.09 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.81 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.67 / defence 0.80 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.81 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 37% | Kristiansund BK 24%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%, Kristiansund BK 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.