Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Sarpsborg Stadion to face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Tromso away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.20 for Tromso — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sarpsborg 08 FF lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% versus Tromso 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Tromso 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.57 xG and Tromso 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.905 / defence 1.210 | Tromso attack 0.741 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.256. Data: 59 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 59 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 25% | Tromso 27%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Tromso 3.70. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% | Tromso 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 25% | Tromso 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.57 / Tromso 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.905 / def 1.210 | Tromso attack 0.741 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Tromso xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 1 Tromso.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 48% chance of winning, Tromso a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso?
Record (6 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 3W | Draws 1 | Tromso 2W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Tromso (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.91) and Tromso's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.74x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
48%
2.10
25%
3.99
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.70
1.13
Tromso xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
6%
17.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.13 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 21W 12D 26L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Tromso's form line: 28W 10D 21L from 59 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.59 for Tromso. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.31 PPG from 29 outings (11W 5D 13L).
On the road, Tromso have gone 14W 4D 11L from 29 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.37 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 21W 12D 26L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while Tromso have gone 28W 10D 21L in their last 59 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.31 PPG; Tromso away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Tromso in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Tromso have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Tromso see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 72%, Tromso 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 48% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso in 34%; Tromso in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 41% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 48% of Tromso's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Tromso in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Tromso 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Tromso 2-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.57 xG and Tromso 1.13 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.91 / defence 1.21 against Tromso attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 25% | Tromso 27%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Tromso 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.27 PPG, Tromso 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.