Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stabaek make the trip to Sarpsborg Stadion to face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record at Sarpsborg Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.00 for Stabaek — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W, Stabaek 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Stabaek — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 32% versus Stabaek 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Stabaek 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.38 xG and Stabaek 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.797 / defence 0.897 | Stabaek attack 0.862 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.413. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 19 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 30%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Stabaek 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 20% | Stabaek 78%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.38 / Stabaek 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.797 / def 0.897 | Stabaek attack 0.862 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Stabaek xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 3 October 2020 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 4 - 0 Stabaek.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 43% chance of winning, Stabaek a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.80) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.86x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.72
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.47
1.09
Stabaek xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.09 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 7W 3D 9L from 19 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 6L across 19 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.32 for Stabaek. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 5W 1D 3L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Sarpsborg 08 FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stabaek's away record stands at 2W 4D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.32 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 7W 3D 9L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Stabaek away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.78 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Stabaek in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 3 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Stabaek have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 22%, Stabaek 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 78% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Stabaek?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 78% of Stabaek's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 78% of Stabaek's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Stabaek 4-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.38 xG and Stabaek 1.09 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stabaek landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.80 / defence 0.90 against Stabaek attack 0.86 / defence 1.23, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 30%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%, Stabaek 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stabaek's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.26 PPG, Stabaek 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.