Sandefjord 1-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 56%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandefjord vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 17 as Sandefjord welcome Viking to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 August 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord at Jotun Arena this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Jotun Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Viking have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Viking's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sandefjord's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Viking have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Sandefjord.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2025, ended 1–3 with Viking winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Viking have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Viking in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 59% and Viking 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 65% | Viking 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.27 xG and Viking 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.478 / defence 0.781 | Viking attack 1.373 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.318. Sandefjord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.478 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Sandefjord's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Sandefjord games / 48 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 56% | Draw 21% | Viking 23%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Viking 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 30% | Viking 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 56% | Draw 21% | Viking 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Sandefjord 2.27 / Viking 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.478 / def 0.781 | Viking attack 1.373 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Viking xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Viking kick off?
Sandefjord vs Viking kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Viking?
Sandefjord 1 - 2 Viking.
Where is Sandefjord vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Viking part of?
Sandefjord vs Viking is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 56% chance of winning, Viking a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sandefjord and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Viking?
Record (7 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Viking 5W.
What form are Sandefjord and Viking in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Viking (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (1.48x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
56%
1.78
21%
4.75
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.68
1.41
Viking xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
10%
9.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
2%
42.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.41 for Viking, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 46 games, going 18W 7D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 2.02 PPG from 46 outings (27W 12D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 15W 2D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.83 points per game from 23 outings (12W 6D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.28 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 72%.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Viking in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 18W 7D 21L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Viking have gone 27W 12D 7L in their last 46 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Viking away?
Sandefjord's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 2.04 PPG; Viking away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2024, when Viking won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Viking specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
2
Draws
7
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Viking have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Sandefjord 1-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 52%, Viking 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sandefjord and 70% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sandefjord's games and 74% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sandefjord's matches and 70% of Viking's.
Do Sandefjord and Viking tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Viking in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sandefjord 1-2 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.27 xG and Viking 1.41 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.48 / defence 0.78 against Viking attack 1.37 / defence 0.92, drawn from 46/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 56% | Draw 21% | Viking 23%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Viking win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 65%, Viking 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.