Sandefjord 2-5 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sandefjord face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 15 as Sandefjord welcome Bodo/Glimt to Release Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Release Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Release Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bodo/Glimt — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bodo/Glimt have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Sandefjord.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 1–4 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 62% and Bodo/Glimt 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 78% | Bodo/Glimt 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.28 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.975 / defence 0.847 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.314 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.252. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Sandefjord games / 45 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 35% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 40%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 60% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 35% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Sandefjord 1.28 / Bodo/Glimt 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.975 / def 0.847 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.314 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Bodo/Glimt xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sandefjord 2 - 5 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 35% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (3 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 3W.
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.97x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
35%
2.90
26%
3.86
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.68
1.39
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.67
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.39 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 45 games, going 9W 10D 26L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.18 PPG from 45 outings (30W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.36 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 4W 8D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.14 points per game from 21 outings (15W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.76 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 9W 10D 26L in their last 45 games (0.82 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 30W 8D 7L in their last 45 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 0.95 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 76%, Bodo/Glimt at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Sandefjord and 67% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Sandefjord's games and 57% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Sandefjord's matches and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sandefjord 2-5 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.28 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.39 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.39 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.31 / defence 0.77, drawn from 43/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 35% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 40%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 78%, Bodo/Glimt 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.