Viking 3-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aalesund make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 24 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Viking have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at SR-Bank Arena this season.
Aalesund (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Aalesund have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Viking. A 1.50 PPG lead over Aalesund (2.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Viking lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Aalesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Aalesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 73% and Aalesund 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 64% | Aalesund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 3.32 xG and Aalesund 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.391 / defence 1.128 | Aalesund attack 0.703 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.293. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.391 — their λ of 3.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Viking games / 45 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 81% | Draw 11% | Aalesund 8%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.23 | Draw 9.09 | Aalesund 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Viking (81%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 4.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (3.32 / 1.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.34 combined xG gives a 81% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | Aalesund 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 81% | Draw 11% | Aalesund 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 62% | xG Viking 3.32 / Aalesund 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.391 / def 1.128 | Aalesund attack 0.703 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Viking (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.32
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Aalesund xG
62%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Aalesund kick off?
Viking vs Aalesund kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 July 2023 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Aalesund?
Viking 3 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is Viking vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Aalesund part of?
Viking vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 81% chance of winning, Aalesund a 8% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Viking and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Aalesund?
Record (4 meetings): Viking 2W | Draws 1 | Aalesund 1W.
What form are Viking and Aalesund in?
Viking (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Aalesund (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.39x the league average against Aalesund's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 3.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.70x) against Viking's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
81%
1.24
11%
8.88
8%
12.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
7.9%
Home win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.32
Viking xG
Total xG
4.34
1.02
Aalesund xG
1.24
81%
Home win
8.88
11%
Draw
12.74
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
4%
27.55
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Viking and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 3.32 expected goals for Viking and 1.02 for Aalesund, a combined total of 4.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Viking have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 18W 10D 16L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund's form line: 11W 10D 23L from 44 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.64 PPG from 22 outings (10W 6D 6L).
On the road, Aalesund have gone 4W 4D 14L from 22 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 0.93 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 18W 10D 16L in their last 44 games (1.45 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 11W 10D 23L in their last 44 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Aalesund away?
Viking's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.64 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 0-4 on 26 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Viking
2
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Aalesund have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Aalesund 1-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Aalesund?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 64%, Aalesund 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Viking and 68% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Viking's recent matches and 46% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Viking vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Viking's matches and 68% of Aalesund's.
Do Viking and Aalesund tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Aalesund 3-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 3.32 xG and Aalesund 1.02 xG, a combined 4.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.39 / defence 1.13 against Aalesund attack 0.70 / defence 1.38, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 81% | Draw 11% | Aalesund 8%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 81%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 64%, Aalesund 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.