Rosenborg 2-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 October 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lerkendal Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Rosenborg against 0.80 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Rosenborg's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 54% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 56% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.86 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.031 / defence 0.739 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.030 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.273. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Rosenborg games / 53 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Rosenborg 1.86 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.031 / def 0.739 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.030 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Rosenborg 2 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 58% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (8 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 3 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4W.
What form are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.03) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.03x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.37
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.83
0.97
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
3%
33.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.97 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 25W 12D 15L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 17W 15D 20L from 52 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.27 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.08 PPG from 25 outings (15W 7D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 10W 7D 8L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.54 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 71%.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 25W 12D 15L in their last 52 games (1.67 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 15D 20L in their last 52 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.08 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
3
Draws
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 56%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rosenborg) and 72% (Sarpsborg 08 FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Rosenborg's games and 72% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Rosenborg's matches and 72% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sarpsborg 08 FF defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Rosenborg 2-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.86 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.74 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Sarpsborg 08 FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 56%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.67 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.