Rosenborg 1-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rosenborg face Bodo/Glimt.

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Analysis

Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Rosenborg (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bodo/Glimt away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Rosenborg, 1.70 for Bodo/Glimt — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Rosenborg 2–3 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 62% and Bodo/Glimt 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 72% | Bodo/Glimt 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.92 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.047 / defence 1.012 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.624 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.750 / away 1.305. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.624, which lifts their away xG to 2.15. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 51 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 50.

Result probabilities: Rosenborg 35% | Draw 20% | Bodo/Glimt 44%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.82 | Draw 4.90 | Bodo/Glimt 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (1.92 / 2.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 4.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 50% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 away games).

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