Valerenga 3-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 22 as Valerenga welcome Aalesund to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 September 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Valerenga have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga at Intility Arena this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aalesund — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Aalesund have posted 0W 0D 10L from 10 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valerenga 0.80 PPG, Aalesund 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Valerenga, 0 for Aalesund and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Valerenga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 58% versus Aalesund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 64% | Aalesund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.31 xG and Aalesund 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.859 / defence 1.354 | Aalesund attack 0.716 / defence 1.551. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.288. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.551 — this is suppressing Valerenga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Valerenga games / 51 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 61% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 20%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | Aalesund 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 60% | Aalesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 61% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG Valerenga 2.31 / Aalesund 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.859 / def 1.354 | Aalesund attack 0.716 / def 1.551 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Aalesund xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Aalesund kick off?
Valerenga vs Aalesund kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Valerenga 3 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is Valerenga vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Aalesund part of?
Valerenga vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 61% chance of winning, Aalesund a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Valerenga and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Aalesund?
Record (5 meetings): Valerenga 2W | Draws 3 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Aalesund in?
Valerenga (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Aalesund (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valerenga's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
61%
1.64
19%
5.18
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.55
1.25
Aalesund xG
1.64
61%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
10%
10.04
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
2%
51.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.25 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Valerenga have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 11D 22L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund's form line: 12W 11D 27L from 50 games, 0.94 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.24 PPG, Aalesund on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valerenga have posted 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (10W 4D 11L).
On the road, Aalesund have gone 4W 4D 17L from 25 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valerenga are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 0.90 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 17W 11D 22L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 12W 11D 27L in their last 50 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Aalesund away?
Valerenga's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.36 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Valerenga have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jul 2026, when Valerenga won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Valerenga
3
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 4, Aalesund have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2026, when Valerenga 6-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Aalesund?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 48%, Aalesund 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Valerenga and 72% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Valerenga's recent matches and 48% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valerenga vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Valerenga's matches and 72% of Aalesund's.
Do Valerenga and Aalesund tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Aalesund 3-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.31 xG and Aalesund 1.25 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.86 / defence 1.35 against Aalesund attack 0.72 / defence 1.55, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 61% | Draw 19% | Aalesund 20%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 64%, Aalesund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.24 PPG, Aalesund 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.