Molde 1-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Aker Stadion to face Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Molde (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Molde against 1.30 for Ham-Kam. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Molde, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Ham-Kam — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Ham-Kam winning.
The historical record gives Molde a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Molde half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 52% versus Ham-Kam 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 67% | Ham-Kam 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.64 xG and Ham-Kam 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.044 / defence 0.959 | Ham-Kam attack 0.901 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.358. Data: 46 Molde games / 46 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 48% | Draw 25% | Ham-Kam 27%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Ham-Kam 3.70. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Molde 60% | Ham-Kam 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 48% | Draw 25% | Ham-Kam 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Molde 1.64 / Ham-Kam 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.044 / def 0.959 | Ham-Kam attack 0.901 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Molde (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Ham-Kam xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Molde vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Molde 1 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Molde vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Ham-Kam part of?
Molde vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 48% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Molde and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Ham-Kam?
Record (7 meetings): Molde 4W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are Molde and Ham-Kam in?
Molde (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.04) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.90x) against Molde's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.06
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Molde xG
Total xG
2.81
1.17
Ham-Kam xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
5%
19.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Molde and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Molde and 1.17 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Molde have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 21W 9D 16L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam's form line: 12W 14D 20L from 46 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Molde have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (11W 4D 8L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 6W 7D 10L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.13 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 21W 9D 16L in their last 46 games (1.57 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 12W 14D 20L in their last 46 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Ham-Kam away?
Molde's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 1.61 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Molde or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Molde have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-0 on 9 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Molde
2
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Molde have won 6, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Molde 4-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Ham-Kam?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 61%, Ham-Kam 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Molde and 48% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Molde's recent matches and 44% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Molde vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Molde's matches and 48% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Molde and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Ham-Kam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Ham-Kam 1-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.64 xG and Ham-Kam 1.17 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 48% | Draw 25% | Ham-Kam 27%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 67%, Ham-Kam 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.