Kristiansund BK 0-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 40%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Kristiansund BK welcome Bodo/Glimt to Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 3). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Bodo/Glimt have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Kristiansund BK's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

Bodo/Glimt have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Kristiansund BK.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Sep 2025, ended Kristiansund BK 1–7 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 7 of 8 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 58% versus Bodo/Glimt 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 54% | Bodo/Glimt 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kristiansund BK surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.76 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.069 / defence 1.125 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.161 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.306. Data: built from Kristiansund BK's last 30 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 40% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 38%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.51 | Draw 4.46 | Bodo/Glimt 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.71) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kristiansund BK's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kristiansund BK 70% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 80% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Kristiansund BK 30 games, Bodo/Glimt 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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