Ham-Kam 1-5 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Brann meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 5W 2D 3L at Briskeby Arena — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brann (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Brann have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Ham-Kam, 1.60 for Brann — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Brann in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Brann hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with Brann winning.
It is worth noting that Brann have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 48% versus Brann 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 50% | Brann 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 2.27 xG and Brann 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.143 / defence 0.939 | Brann attack 1.082 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.306. Data: 31 Ham-Kam games / 32 Brann games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 59% | Draw 20% | Brann 22%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Brann 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Ham-Kam (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 70% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 59% | Draw 20% | Brann 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Ham-Kam 2.27 / Brann 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.143 / def 0.939 | Brann attack 1.082 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Brann xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Brann kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Brann kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Ham-Kam 1 - 5 Brann.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Brann part of?
Ham-Kam vs Brann is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 59% chance of winning, Brann a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ham-Kam and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Brann?
Record (6 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 1 | Brann 5W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Brann in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 1.14x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.08x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (31/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
59%
1.71
20%
5.06
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.60
1.33
Brann xG
1.71
59%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
10%
9.67
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
2%
44.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.33 for Brann, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 18W 16D 26L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 34W 13D 13L from 60 games, 1.92 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
On the road, Brann have gone 15W 7D 8L from 30 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.83 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Brann in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 18W 16D 26L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while Brann have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.33 PPG; Brann away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 1-5 on 6 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Ham-Kam
1
Draws
7
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Brann?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 0, Brann have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Brann 3-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 50%, Brann 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ham-Kam and 73% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ham-Kam's games and 60% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ham-Kam's matches and 73% of Brann's.
Do Ham-Kam and Brann tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Brann in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brann run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Ham-Kam 1-5 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 2.27 xG and Brann 1.33 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Brann outscored their 1.33 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.14 / defence 0.94 against Brann attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 31/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 59% | Draw 20% | Brann 22%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Brann win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 50%, Brann 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.