Haugesund 1-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Haugesund face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bodo/Glimt travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund in Eliteserien (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Haugesund have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Haugesund's games and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's (from Haugesund's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Bodo/Glimt have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Haugesund.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Jul 2023, ended Haugesund 1–2 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 60% and Bodo/Glimt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 56% | Bodo/Glimt 73%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Haugesund surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.36 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.915 / defence 0.959 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.436 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.365. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.436, which lifts their away xG to 1.88. Data: built from Haugesund's last 48 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 48.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 28% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 50%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.58 | Draw 4.45 | Bodo/Glimt 2.02. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.36 / 1.88) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Haugesund's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haugesund 70% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 19 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 28% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Haugesund 1.36 / Bodo/Glimt 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.915 / def 0.959 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.436 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Bodo/Glimt xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Haugesund 1 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 19) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 28% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 50% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.92x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haugesund's last 48 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
28%
3.58
22%
4.45
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.24
1.88
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.58
28%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
4%
23.42
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.88 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 12D 21L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.10 PPG from 48 outings (31W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 10W 6D 7L across their last 23 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.09 points per game from their last 23 away games (16W 0D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.73 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 65%.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Haugesund (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haugesund
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 31W 8D 9L in their last 48 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.57 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won Haugesund 0-4 Bodo/Glimt.
Haugesund's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
2
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 74%, Bodo/Glimt at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Haugesund and 70% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Haugesund's games and 61% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Haugesund's matches and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Haugesund's recent matches and 87% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 1-3 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.36 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.88 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.44 / defence 0.89, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 28% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 50%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 56%, Bodo/Glimt 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.