ODD Ballklubb 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 19 as ODD Ballklubb welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Skagerak Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skagerak Arena, ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 2 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 48% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.21 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.954 / defence 0.723 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.049 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.360. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. ODD Ballklubb's defence rating of 0.723 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 ODD Ballklubb games / 48 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 64% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 17%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 5.88. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 40% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 64% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 57% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.21 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.954 / def 0.723 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.049 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
ODD Ballklubb 0 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 64% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (7 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 4 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
ODD Ballklubb's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
64%
1.56
19%
5.15
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.24
1.03
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
11%
9.11
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
2%
55.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.03 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 20W 10D 18L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 19W 8D 21L from 48 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.46 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (12W 3D 8L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 4D 11L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.81 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 71%.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 10D 18L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 19W 8D 21L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.70 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.22 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
5
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 52%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for ODD Ballklubb and 70% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat ODD Ballklubb 0-3 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.21 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.03 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.95 / defence 0.72 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.05 / defence 1.34, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 64% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 17%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Sarpsborg 08 FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 50%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.46 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.