Brann vs Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Viking meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Brann (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 0.60 PPG clear of Brann in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Brann register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Viking in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Brann, 1 for Viking and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2021, ended 1–3 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 71% and Viking 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 59% | Viking 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.66 xG and Viking 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.834 / defence 1.217 | Viking attack 1.182 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.834 / away 1.314. Data: 49 Brann games / 49 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 32% | Draw 26% | Viking 42%. Fair-value odds: Brann 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Viking 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 32% | Draw 26% | Viking 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 71% | xG Brann 1.66 / Viking 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.834 / def 1.217 | Viking attack 1.182 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.834 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Viking (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Viking xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Viking kick off?
Brann vs Viking kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Brann Stadion.
Where is Brann vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Viking part of?
Brann vs Viking is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 32% chance of winning, Viking a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Brann and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Viking?
Record (1 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 0 | Viking 1W.
What form are Brann and Viking in?
Brann (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Viking (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Brann's attack at 0.83x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.18x) against Brann's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
32%
3.10
26%
3.83
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Brann xG
Total xG
3.55
1.89
Viking xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
15%
6.62
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
5%
20.54
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Brann and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Brann and 1.89 for Viking, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann's recent record stands at 12W 14D 23L from 49 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 16L across 49 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Brann heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Brann have managed 6W 8D 10L from 24 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 8W 6D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.86 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Viking in 69%.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Viking in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 12W 14D 23L in their last 49 games (1.02 PPG), while Viking have gone 21W 12D 16L in their last 49 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.08 PPG; Viking away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Brann
2
Draws
7
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 1, Viking have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Brann 0-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Brann, 62% for Viking — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Brann and 79% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Brann's games and 62% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Brann's matches and 79% of Viking's.
Do Brann and Viking tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Viking in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 23, as Brann and Viking drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.66 xG and Viking 1.89 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Viking landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Viking attack 1.18 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 32% | Draw 26% | Viking 42%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 59%, Viking 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Viking's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.