Brann 3-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brann face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Viking meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 July 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Brann (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 0.80 PPG clear of Brann in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.60 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Brann register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Viking in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Viking, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Viking have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 59% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 64% | Viking 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.49 xG and Viking 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.101 / defence 1.016 | Viking attack 1.412 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.288. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.412 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Brann games / 45 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 31% | Draw 23% | Viking 46%. Fair-value odds: Brann 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Viking 2.17. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | Viking 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Jul 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 31% | Draw 23% | Viking 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Brann 1.49 / Viking 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.101 / def 1.016 | Viking attack 1.412 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Viking (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Viking xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Viking kick off?
Brann vs Viking kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 13 July 2025 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Viking?
Brann 3 - 1 Viking.
Where is Brann vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Viking part of?
Brann vs Viking is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 31% chance of winning, Viking a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Brann and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Viking?
Record (7 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 2 | Viking 5W.
What form are Brann and Viking in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Viking (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.10x the league average against Viking's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.41x) against Brann's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
31%
3.22
23%
4.35
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Brann xG
Total xG
3.34
1.85
Viking xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
5%
20.46
10%
9.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Brann and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Brann and 1.85 for Viking, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann's recent record stands at 25W 11D 8L from 44 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 6L across 44 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for Brann against 2.05 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Brann have managed 14W 5D 3L from 22 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 11W 6D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.25 scored and 1.27 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Viking in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 25W 11D 8L in their last 44 games (1.95 PPG), while Viking have gone 26W 12D 6L in their last 44 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Viking away?
Brann's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.14 PPG; Viking away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Brann or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Viking in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Brann
2
Draws
7
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 1, Viking have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Viking 3-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 59%, Viking 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Brann and 64% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Brann's games and 68% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Brann's matches and 64% of Viking's.
Do Brann and Viking tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Viking in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Viking 3-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.49 xG and Viking 1.85 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Viking landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.10 / defence 1.02 against Viking attack 1.41 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 31% | Draw 23% | Viking 46%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 64%, Viking 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.95 PPG, Viking 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.