Brann vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Brann and Bodo/Glimt meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 00:00 UK time.

Current Form

Brann's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Brann's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Bodo/Glimt have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 May 2021, ended Brann 1–2 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Brann — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 71% and Bodo/Glimt 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 56% | Bodo/Glimt 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Brann surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 0.85 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.794 / defence 1.203 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.317 / defence 0.601. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.208. Brann's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.601, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Brann's projected output down. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.317, which lifts their away xG to 1.91. Brann's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bodo/Glimt's projected output up. Data: built from Brann's last 55 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 55.

Result probabilities: Brann 14% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 60%. Fair-value odds: Brann 7.08 | Draw 3.91 | Bodo/Glimt 1.66. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (60%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Brann's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brann 80% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 away games).

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