Brann vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Bodo/Glimt meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Brann, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 1–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Brann — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 71% and Bodo/Glimt 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 56% | Bodo/Glimt 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 0.85 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.794 / defence 1.203 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.317 / defence 0.601. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.208. Brann's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.601 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Brann games / 55 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 14% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 60%. Fair-value odds: Brann 7.14 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 14% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Brann 0.85 / Bodo/Glimt 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.794 / def 1.203 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.317 / def 0.601 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Bodo/Glimt xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Brann Stadion.
Where is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 14% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 60% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Brann and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 2W.
What form are Brann and Bodo/Glimt in?
Brann (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brann's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.32x) against Brann's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
14%
7.08
26%
3.91
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Brann xG
Total xG
2.77
1.91
Bodo/Glimt xG
7.08
14%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
15%
6.78
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
2%
47.98
26%
3.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Brann and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Brann and 1.91 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 55 games, going 13W 17D 25L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.45 PPG from 55 outings (42W 9D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.43 PPG clear of Brann — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 7W 9D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.22 points per game from 27 outings (18W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.78 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 13W 17D 25L in their last 55 games (1.02 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 42W 9D 4L in their last 55 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.11 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Brann or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-1 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Brann
2
Draws
6
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Brann, 67% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Brann and 70% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Brann's games and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Brann's matches and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Brann and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 0-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 0.85 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.91 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.32 / defence 0.60, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 14% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 60%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 56%, Bodo/Glimt 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.